LME cash copper settled yesterday at $9,693/ton. That's the highest close since March 17.
Three-month forward is at 9,641.Sothebackwardationisstillthere–about9,641.Sothebackwardationisstillthere–about50/ton. That tells you one thing clearly: prompt material is tighter than future material. This isn't extreme yet, but it's been this way for six straight trading days.
For comparison: early April we were around 9,280–9,280–9,350.
So yes, we've moved up roughly $400/ton in three and a half weeks.
Why prices crept up quietly
1. Chile's power situation hasn't fully cleared
Mid-April, a transmission issue in northern Chile affected several mines in the Antofagasta region. Most people outside the industry didn't hear about it because it wasn't a full shutdown. But production slowed for about 5–7 days at two medium-sized operations. That's roughly 12,000–15,000 tons of concentrate that didn't move when expected.
That ripple hits cathode availability about four weeks later – meaning mid-to-late May.
2. China's bonded stocks dropped again
Shanghai bonded copper stocks are now at 78,000 tons. Three weeks ago they were 112,000 tons. That's a 30% drop in less than a month.
When that happens, Chinese smelters and traders start looking for replacement material from South America and Africa. That pulls tonnage away from other markets, including Europe and the US.
We've already seen two of our regular Southeast Asian mills ask to delay shipment discussions by a week because they're waiting to see where prices settle.
3. The dollar gave copper room
The DXY index slipped from 105.2 to 103.8 over the last ten days. That's not a crash, but it's enough to make dollar-priced metals a bit cheaper for non-US buyers. And when that happens, buying picks up from India, Turkey, and parts of the Middle East – all of which are active right now.
What this means for orders from us (the practical part)
If you're a regular buyer or considering a first order, here's the real talk:
Spot copper (cathodes, 99.99%) – We can still source it, but delivery lead times have stretched from 7–10 days to 12–16 days for May shipment. That's because our usual refineries are running at capacity and allocating more to contract customers.
Copper wire rod (8mm) – This is tighter than cathodes. The rolling mills are complaining about cathode delivery delays, which means wire rod premiums have gone up about 25/toncomparedtoearlyApril.We'recurrentlyquotingLME+25/toncomparedtoearlyApril.We'recurrentlyquotingLME+185–$210/ton for May wire rod, depending on quantity.
Copper busbar and custom profiles – Lead times haven't changed much yet (still 18–22 working days), but three of our fabrication partners have warned they may adjust June pricing if LME stays above $9,600 into mid-May.
Brass products (CU content matters) – Because brass prices follow copper scrap and zinc. Scrap copper is getting harder to source in grade A quality, so some brass mills are using more cathode. That pushes brass prices up slightly even if LME moves sideways.
Should you buy now or wait?
If you need material for June delivery, buying now is reasonable. Prices might dip 100–100–150 if LME stocks suddenly build, but that's not the current trend. A dip below $9,500 in the next two weeks would surprise me.
If you need material for late June or July, you can probably wait another 10–12 days without much risk. But if you see LME close above $9,750 on three consecutive trading days, that's when you should lock in.
If you're just building inventory with no immediate production deadline, hold for now. May often brings a small seasonal pullback around the middle of the month. No guarantee, but historically it happens about 60% of the time.
