Internationally, since October, the global economy has shown a volatile and downward trend. The global manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) for that month was 47.8%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, ending the three consecutive months of month-on-month upward trend, and running below 50% for 13 consecutive months. Looking at countries and regions, the U.S. PMI stabilized and rebounded by 1.4 points, indicating that U.S. economic growth remains strong. The European manufacturing PMI was 44.6%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. It turned from an increase to a decrease month-on-month and remained below 50% for 15 consecutive months. The European Central Bank suspended interest rate hikes as scheduled. The growth rate of Asia's manufacturing industry has slowed down, and the PMI has declined slightly, indicating that Asia's manufacturing industry has maintained a growth trend, but the growth rate has slowed down from last month. The trend of Asia's manufacturing industry is relatively stable compared with other regions, and it is also an important supporting force for global economic recovery. In terms of economic growth, the economic growth rate in Asia is also faster than that in other regions.
In terms of the domestic economy, China's manufacturing boom level declined to a certain extent in October due to factors such as insufficient market demand and seasonality. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, China's manufacturing PM1 in October 2023 was 49.5%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. Judging from the 13 sub-indices, compared with the previous month, the finished goods inventory index and production and operation activity expectation index increased by 1.8 and 0.1 percentage points respectively; the production index, new order index, new export order index, and backlog order index , purchase volume index, import index, purchase price index, ex-factory price index, raw material inventory index, employee index and supplier delivery time index decreased, with the index decrease ranging from 0.1 to 6.8 percentage points. According to data from the Bureau of Statistics, the domestic manufacturing industry shows five characteristics:
First of all, the production index maintained expansion. Affected by factors such as a higher base in September and fewer working days in October, the production index fell by 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, but was still higher than the critical point. The production boom level of manufacturing enterprises maintained expansion. ; Secondly, demand has fallen; thirdly, market expectations are stable and improving; fourthly, PMI of large enterprises continues to be higher than the critical point; finally, the price index has declined, affected by factors such as the recent decline in the prices of some bulk commodities and the fall in market demand. The purchase price index of major raw materials and the ex-factory price index both declined compared with the previous month.
In terms of industry, the production of the nonferrous metal industry is stable. After seasonal adjustment, the national output of ten nonferrous metals in September 2023 was 6.416 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%; that month, the output of refined copper was 1.136 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%; electrolytic aluminum The output was 3.577 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%. In terms of copper production, the number of copper smelting enterprises for maintenance increased in September compared with the previous month, resulting in a month-on-month decline in output. In addition, some leading companies were undergoing maintenance, resulting in a month-on-month decrease in their own output; at the same time, the supply of blister copper and scrap copper was skewed. The tightness has also put some constraints on the production of some enterprises. After October, although some new production capacity will be put into operation and the number of copper smelting companies planning to carry out maintenance is reduced compared with the previous month, due to the reduced capacity utilization rate of some smelting plants during the National Day holiday, the output of copper smelting companies in various places is limited. In terms of electrolytic aluminum, domestic electrolytic aluminum production was overall stable in October, with no significant fluctuations in operating capacity. Only some companies in Sichuan increased production slightly. In addition, some companies in Qinghai performed routine maintenance with a production capacity of 10,000 tons. At the end of that month, electrolytic aluminum companies in Yunnan were once again required to reduce production due to insufficient power supply. If this policy is implemented, it will have an impact on production in the next two months and the first half of next year.
In terms of the market, on October 24, the Standing Committee of the 14th National People's Congress approved the State Council's resolution on the issuance of additional treasury bonds and the 2023 central budget adjustment plan, clarifying that an additional 1 trillion treasury bonds will be issued in 2023 in the fourth quarter, which will release huge benefits to the market and affect the basic metal market for the first time. There was a small gain, but sentiment soon turned cold. Overall, the prices of major metal varieties fluctuated downwards that month. Taking copper as an example, LME copper prices fluctuated in a range after falling. Although there was a rebound at the end of the month, the monthly price center of gravity shifted significantly compared with the previous month. According to statistics, the beginning of the month coincided with the Mid-Autumn Festival and the National Day holiday, and the domestic market was closed. After the opening, Shanghai copper weakened and fluctuated, and rebounded at the end of the month. The three-month contract of Shanghai copper in October opened at 66,980 yuan/ton, with the highest level being 67,720 yuan/ton on October 31. Yuan/ton, the lowest was 66510 yuan/ton on October 23, and closed at 67190 yuan/ton, which was 130 yuan/ton higher than the previous month, an increase of 0.2%. A year-on-year increase of 9.0% and a month-on-month decrease of 2.9%. From the perspective of downstream consumption, since the third quarter, in addition to the increase in automobile production and consumption, the demand for domestic non-ferrous metal products has been weak. From January to September, national real estate development investment was 8,726.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.1%. During the same period, the sales area of commercial housing was 848.06 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 7.5%, of which the residential sales area decreased by 6.3%. The above data shows that there is still considerable downward pressure on my country's real estate market, and some real estate companies still face the risk of operating losses, liquidity shortages and debt default risks. Despite this, the central government's various promotional fee policies have been continuously implemented and good news has been released to the market, indicating that the Chinese government has firm confidence in boosting the economy. At present, my country's basic economic indicators are developing well and the economy maintains steady growth. It is believed that in the future, the non-ferrous metal terminal consumption field, including real estate, will also improve.
