development trend
1. International copper consumption still maintains a certain growth rate, but the growth rate has fallen back: since the 1990s. There are mainly two types of countries that play a greater role in the growth of international copper consumption. One type is developed countries in North America and Europe, such as the United States, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, Japan and other countries. The other type is developing countries, underdeveloped countries and regions in Asia and South America, such as China, India, South Korea, Taiwan Province of China, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, Indonesia, Brazil, Chile and other countries. The consumption ratio of the two types of countries is roughly half each. From the future development trend, the copper consumption of the first type of countries has basically stabilized, and the growth rate of copper consumption is relatively low, generally between 1% and 3%. The second type of countries has great potential for economic development, and their consumption of copper may maintain a relatively fast growth rate. In particular, China, India have seen rapid growth in copper consumption in the past two years, with an increase of more than 6% to 10%. It is expected that the growth of world copper consumption may slow down slightly in the near future, but the long-term growth trend of the international market will not change.
2. The development of international copper mines has intensified, but the supply is still tight in the short term: Against the background of the rapid rise in international copper prices and the continued tight supply of mineral resources, the price of copper concentrate has been rising. While the profits of mining companies have risen sharply, it has also stimulated mining companies to increase their efforts in resource development and promote rapid capacity growth. It is expected that the global mineral output will increase by more than 5.5% in 2007, with a metal volume of about 16.5 million tons. Among them, my country's copper concentrate output reached 830,000 tons (quick report), an increase of 9.97% year-on-year, accounting for about 5% of the global total output. According to relevant data statistics from CRU, in recent years, copper resource development projects have been mainly concentrated in South America, with Chile and Peru as the main countries. Copper resource development projects in Asia have also become a rapid growth trend, with China, India, Outer Mongolia and other countries as the main countries. It is expected that most of the new production capacity in the world will be put into production one after another. In 2008, the increase in copper concentrate output will increase by about 8%, and the copper metal output will be about 17.82 million tons. However, we believe that although the supply is still growing rapidly, it is not fast enough to reverse the shortage of copper concentrate supply in the short term. Any major unexpected event that affects copper production will lead to a shortage of concentrate supply. Therefore, it is expected that the global copper concentrate supply and demand situation will remain pessimistic in the next two years. Domestically, although domestic mining companies have increased their investment, they are still far from meeting domestic demand. It is expected that my country's copper concentrate imports will continue to grow to a certain extent in 2008.
3. The recent international copper price has fluctuated greatly: In the past few years, copper has shown two attributes, one is the attribute as a commodity, and the other is the financial attribute. As a commodity, copper has been in a tight supply state in the past few years, and copper prices have naturally maintained an upward trend. The high returns brought by the rise in copper prices have undoubtedly attracted more funds to intervene. These funds regard copper as part of their investment portfolio. Investing in copper can increase returns and avoid the risk of inflation, so copper has been given financial attributes. After entering 2003, copper prices began to enter an upward channel, with the average annual price rising from US$1,579 in 2003 to US$6,665/ton in 2006, an increase of 322%. On May 11, 2006, the copper price instantly reached a historical high of US$8,800/ton. The financial attributes of copper were exaggerated to the extreme, and at the same time, the price of US$3,000/ton was bid farewell, and the era of high copper prices began. Since then, under the influence of strikes, typhoons, funds, inventories, the US subprime debt crisis, and Chinese demand, copper prices have begun to fluctuate widely, with a fluctuation range of US$5,500 to US$8,500. From the current situation, although the economic conditions in the United States and some developed countries have not been optimistic in recent times, which has a certain inhibitory effect on copper prices, low inventories and strong expectations for China's copper demand are still the main factors supporting copper prices. Therefore, it is expected that copper prices will remain at a relatively high price in the near future and fluctuate widely.
4. The pace of joint reorganization of large international copper enterprises has accelerated. The monopoly of mineral resources has become increasingly severe: the wave of economic globalization has spread to all fields, and the copper industry is no exception. In order to adapt to market competition, in recent years, the pace of joint reorganization of large foreign copper enterprises has accelerated, and the concentration of the industry has also increased. Mergers and acquisitions between enterprises and the expansion of business scope have become a trend. Therefore, we continue to see acquisitions, mergers, and alliances to form larger multinational companies (mostly mining, selection, smelting and processing joint enterprises) to achieve scale operations and expand market share.
