The output of ten nonferrous metal products exceeded 70 million tons for the first time
On January 30, the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association held a press conference on the economic operation of the nonferrous metals industry in 2023 via video. Chen Xuesen, member of the Standing Committee of the Party Committee, Vice President and Spokesperson of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, reported on the economic operation of the nonferrous metals industry in 2023 and answered questions from media reporters and business representatives.
Chen Xuesen said that the non-ferrous metal industry is showing an increasingly stable and positive trend. In 2023, the industrial added value of nonferrous metal enterprises above designated size will increase by 7.4% over the previous year, an increase of 2.2 percentage points compared with the previous year, and 2.8 percentage points higher than the increase in industrial added value of enterprises above designated size nationwide. Since the epidemic, the industrial added value of nonferrous metal enterprises above designated size has shown a steady rebound, with growth of 2.1% in 2020, 3.1% in 2021, 5.2% in 2022, and 7.4% in 2023.
In 2023, the operating characteristics of the nonferrous metals industry will be specifically reflected in seven aspects:
First, the output of ten non-ferrous metal products exceeded the 70 million tons mark for the first time. Preliminary statistics show that in 2023, my country's output of ten commonly used nonferrous metals was 74.698 million tons, an increase of 7.1% over the previous year (calculated on a comparable basis, the same below). Among them, the output of refined copper was 12.99 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.5%; the output of electrolytic aluminum was 41.59 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%; the amount of six concentrated metals was 6.415 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%; the alumina output was 82.44 million tons, a year-on-year increase. 1.4%; copper production (before deducting about 1.7 million tons of duplicate statistics between enterprises) was 22.17 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5%; aluminum production (before deducting about 14 million tons of duplicate statistics among enterprises) was 63.034 million tons, an increase from the previous year The decline of 1.4% turned into an increase of 5.7%. In 2023, the capacity utilization rate of the nonferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 79.5%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous year and 4.2 percentage points higher than the national industrial manufacturing capacity utilization rate.
Second, the growth rate of fixed asset investment hit a record high in the past ten years. In 2023, the fixed asset investment completed by the nonferrous metal industry will increase by 17.3% over the previous year, 2.8 percentage points faster than the previous year, and 8.3 percentage points higher than the national industrial fixed asset investment growth rate; the nonferrous metal mine mining and processing completed fixed asset investment growth 42.7%; fixed asset investment completed in smelting, rolling and processing increased by 12.5%. The investment in non-ferrous metal materials required for photovoltaics, wind power, power and energy storage batteries, new energy vehicles, etc. and the investment in non-ferrous metal mines have increased significantly, which is an important factor driving the growth of fixed asset investment in the non-ferrous metal industry. Since the epidemic, the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the nonferrous metal industry has increased year by year. Among them, the growth rate in 2020 was -1%, the growth rate in 2021 was 4.1%, the growth rate in 2022 was 14.5%, and the growth rate in 2023 was 17.3%, which is a record in the past ten years. new highs.
Third, the import of non-ferrous metal mining raw materials increased, and the decline in aluminum exports narrowed. In 2023, my country's nonferrous metal import and export trade totaled US$331.54 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%. Among them, the import value was US$271.94 billion, an increase of 4.3%; the export value was US$59.61 billion, a decrease of 9.8%. In 2023, the physical import volume of copper concentrate was 27.536 million tons, an increase of 2.303 million tons or 9.1% over the previous year; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper materials was 5.48 million tons, a decrease of 360,000 tons or 6.2% over the previous year; The physical import volume of bauxite was 141.38 million tons, an increase of 16.15 million tons or 12.9% over the previous year; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum materials was 5.675 million tons, a decrease of 919,000 tons or 13.9% over the previous year, but the decline was In the first three quarters, it narrowed by 1.5 percentage points and 6.1 percentage points from the first half of the year; rare earth export volume was 52,306.5 tons, an increase of 3,578.7 tons or 7.3% over the previous year.
Fourth, the price differentiation of non-ferrous metal varieties. Specifically, first, the price fluctuations of mainly commonly used nonferrous metals are less than those of new energy metals. Among them, copper prices rose slightly compared with the previous year; aluminum prices continued to narrow; industrial silicon prices fell, but showed signs of stopping at the end of the year; battery-grade lithium carbonate prices fell sharply. Second, the prices of major nonferrous metals in the domestic market are stronger than those in the international market. In 2023, the average three-month copper price on the SHFE increased by 1.8% compared with the previous year, while the average three-month copper price on the LME fell by 3.2% compared with the previous year; the average three-month aluminum price on the SHFE fell less than the average three-month aluminum price on the LME. The decline was 6.8 percentage points lower. Third, the spot prices of major nonferrous metals are better than futures prices. In 2023, the average price of domestic spot copper will be 1,051 yuan/ton higher than the average price of three-month copper on the previous exchange, and the average price of domestic spot aluminum will be 238 yuan/ton higher than the average price of three-month aluminum on the previous exchange.
Fifth, non-ferrous metal enterprises above designated size realized profits from falling to increasing. In 2023, nonferrous metal industrial enterprises above designated size achieved a total profit of 371.61 billion yuan, an increase of 23.2% over the previous year. Among the annual profits, independent mining companies realized profits of 78.57 billion yuan, an increase of 8.1%; smelting companies realized profits of 186.9 billion yuan, an increase of 23.1%; processing companies realized profits of 106.15 billion yuan, an increase of 37.6%. Cost expenses per 100 yuan of operating income were 94.64 yuan, a decrease of 0.31 yuan from the previous year.
Sixth, photovoltaics, wind power, new energy vehicles, power and energy storage batteries have become the main areas for growth in nonferrous metal consumption. In 2023, my country's output of photovoltaics, wind power, new energy vehicles, power and energy storage batteries, domestic new energy installed capacity, and exports of products in the above fields will all increase significantly, becoming the main areas driving the growth of consumption of nonferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc. . According to estimates, in 2023, the above-mentioned industries will consume approximately 3 million tons of copper, an increase of 52% over the previous year, accounting for approximately 19% of the national copper consumption; the above-mentioned industries will consume approximately 9 million tons of aluminum, an increase of 50% over the previous year, accounting for approximately 19% of the national copper consumption. The proportion of national aluminum consumption is about 20%; the galvanized consumption of wind power towers, bolts and other steel structure equipment and photovoltaic steel brackets is about 700,000 tons, an increase of 51% over the previous year, accounting for about 9% of the national zinc consumption.
Seventh, Zijin Mining Group's mined copper output exceeded one million tons for the first time. In recent years, domestic nonferrous metal enterprises have made remarkable achievements in resource development at home and abroad. The amount and output of major nonferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, nickel, cobalt, and lithium at home and abroad have increased significantly. Among many domestic companies, Zijin Mining Group achieved a mine output of 1.01 million tons of copper for the first time in 2023. It is the only company in China whose mine copper production has exceeded one million tons. It ranks among the top five in the world and has entered the first square of global mining companies. , achieved a historic breakthrough for Chinese non-ferrous metal mining enterprises in the global resource competition, and achieved the development goals that the non-ferrous metal industry dreams of.
Chen Xuesen said that based on the domestic and foreign macroeconomic environment, especially the operating characteristics of the domestic and foreign nonferrous metals industries, combined with the "Trinity" prosperity index report released by the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, on the premise that no "black swan" event occurs, the forecast for 2024 The main indicators of the non-ferrous metal industry are predicted as follows:
In 2024, the growth rate of the added value of the nonferrous metal industry will remain above 5.5% and is expected to reach 6%; the output growth rate of the ten commonly used nonferrous metals calculated according to the new caliber will remain at around 5%; the consumption of nonferrous metals in the real estate sector is expected to continue to slow down However, photovoltaics, wind power, power and energy storage batteries, new energy vehicles and lightweight transportation are still the main growth points of non-ferrous metal consumption; the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the non-ferrous metal industry remains at around 10%; my country's aluminum exports Volume is expected to continue to stabilize, and imports of copper concentrate and bauxite will maintain steady growth; non-ferrous metal prices in the first quarter are mainly volatile at current prices, and copper and aluminum metal prices may rebound slightly in the second half of the year. Industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, etc. Prices are expected to fluctuate within a reasonable range.
