In-depth industry analysis shows that under the dual-carbon policy, the copper demand pattern may quietly change
Copper, with its superior electrical conductivity, thermal conductivity and corrosion resistance, plays an important role in many fields. In our country, copper is widely used in many fields. Among them, electricity demand accounts for about 50% of the total demand and is the well-deserved demand leader, followed by home appliance manufacturing, construction, etc. This pattern may quietly change with the announcement of the national dual-carbon policy.
As early as June 2015, China submitted the document "Strengthening Action to Address Climate Change - China's Nationally Determined Contributions" to the Convention Secretariat, setting its independent action goals by 2030: carbon dioxide emissions should peak around 2030 and strive to achieve their goals as soon as possible. reached the peak; carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP dropped by 60% to 65% compared with 2005, non-fossil energy accounted for about 20% of primary energy consumption, and forest stock volume increased by about 4.5 billion cubic meters compared with 2005. In September 2020, General Secretary Xi Jinping announced at the general debate of the 75th United Nations General Assembly that China will increase its nationally determined contributions, adopt more powerful policies and measures, and strive to peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030. Achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. Against this background, the demand for copper in the power system will undergo major changes. At present, my country's power generation is dominated by thermal power, accounting for about 70% of the total power generation. However, thermal power generation has the following major problems. ***, thermal power generation causes greater pollution. Since thermal power generation is mainly based on burning coal, coal combustion will produce a large amount of carbon dioxide, which seriously pollutes the environment and is not in line with the country's dual-carbon policy. Second, more than 30% of my country's coal supply relies on imports, which exposes my country's power generation companies to risks caused by price fluctuations of imported coal. Therefore, new environmentally friendly power generation, mainly wind energy and solar photovoltaics, is gradually emerging.
Judging from the completed amount of power infrastructure investment, the cumulative completed amount from January to July this year was 222.7 billion yuan, of which wind power accounted for 99.2 billion yuan, accounting for about 45% of the total completed amount. Although solar photovoltaic power generation currently accounts for the smallest proportion, it is growing rapidly. Wind power generation consumes much more copper than traditional thermal power generation because the wind power generation device itself has many copper parts that are not needed in traditional thermal power generation. Wind power generation is divided into two main types: offshore and onshore. The common part between the two is the main body of the generator. The copper part includes the rotor house, converter, main shaft, etc., while offshore wind power generation requires longer submarine cables. . Since 2018, wind power equipment output has maintained an annual growth rate of about 11%. With the implementation of national environmental protection policies and the inclination of other related policies, in the next five years, the growth rate will reach 13%, which is expected to become a new growth point for copper demand. On the other hand, the demand for copper in the field of new energy vehicles is increasing day by day. On average, a fuel-powered car requires about 20KG of copper, a plug-in hybrid car requires up to 60KG, and a pure electric car requires up to 80KG. Thanks to the support of relevant policies, the production and sales of new energy vehicles are currently rising at a monthly year-on-year growth rate of 100%, driving a significant increase in demand for battery-grade copper foil and automotive copper wires. In addition, the popularity of new energy charging piles will also boost demand for copper. It is expected that the amount of copper used in the new energy sector will reach 100,000 tons this year, accounting for 1% of total copper consumption.
With the support of the national dual-carbon policy, high-pollution and high-energy-consuming industries will move from the front to the backstage, while new materials and new energy fields will catch up and become the focus of attention. The rise of wind power generation and new energy fields will gradually replace thermal power generation and fuel vehicles respectively in the next 30 years, and copper demand will also tilt towards these two new growth points.
