China is in the midst of a rapid expansion of its copper industry that is reshaping the global flow of this metal essential to the world's energy transition.
The Asian nation's control over the supply of other green metals such as lithium, cobalt and nickel, which are used in electric car batteries, has prompted worried Western governments to encourage independent supply chains. Meanwhile, China's refined copper production and its share of global output is set to hit a record this year after a surge in new smelter construction.
The rapid growth in capacity has brought new vigour to a market that for 20 years has been driven in large part by how much Chinese buyers are willing to pay. The country will still import more and more copper, but more as ore than as refined metal.
Considered the most important commodity in the decarbonisation era, copper is processed into products such as copper rods, strips, wire, enamelled wire, rows and sheets, which are used in everything from electric cars to wind turbines and massively expanding power grids.In 2023, China's buoyant demand for green technology is set to be a bright spot in the ailing world metals market.
Craig Long, principal analyst at research firm CRU Group, said: "Like all countries, China sees a strategic need for copper - especially now that green energy applications are growing - and it's a good place to start. -Like other countries, China wants to ensure copper self-sufficiency." According to CRU, China's refined copper production will account for around 45 per cent of total global output this year.
Smelter construction will be a key topic of conversation this week as hundreds of copper executives head to China's commodities hub Shanghai for Asia Copper week. Miners and smelters will negotiate key annual ore supply contracts, and attendees will get an update on Chinese demand.
Despite the economic damage caused by the epidemic and China's property crisis, metal consumption in China is relatively strong in 2023. This may have helped copper prices, which are now only slightly below the same period last year, avoid a further decline in the market.
CRU expects copper demand in China to grow by 5% this year, while Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has ranked copper as one of the most favoured commodities for next year, citing a "strong green demand environment" - especially in the Asian powerhouse. especially in this large Asian country.
We don't expect Chinese investors to be as cautious as they feared two months ago," Colin Hamilton, managing director for commodities research at BMO Capital Markets Ltd. wrote in a report ahead of the Shanghai conference.
The same road
The expansion of smelting capacity echoes the history of China's other metals sectors. Until 2006, for example, the country was a net importer of steel. But a wave of capacity additions eventually led to massive exports - hurting international steelmakers and exacerbating global trade tensions before Trump took office.
China's copper smelting capacity will increase by another 45 per cent by 2027, accounting for 61 per cent of projected global capacity additions over the same period, said Carlos Risopatron, head of economics at the International copper Study Group.
Simon Hunt has worked in the copper industry for 50 years and now runs his own consultancy. He estimates that China could become a net copper exporter by 2025 or 2026 as copper production surges. That's not a consensus, but the viability of exports is a topic of discussion in the industry.
In any case, Chinese copper smelters are likely to put pressure on their global counterparts in the coming years as they "pay more" to get the raw materials they need, Hunt said. The result could be the closure of older smelters in other parts of the world.
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